Sunday, August 7, 2011

Is there reason within all of the noise?

Yes, I would say there is. Can we find it? Well, it's not easy, that's for sure.

Two reasonable people can have the exact same facts and arrive at completely different conclusions, wouldn't you agree?

We (the "baby boomer" generation) are the ones who created the situation we're in now and that is a fact, in my opinion. Oh, true the groundwork and infrastructure was in large measure laid by preceeding generations, but WE used it to create today.

So, how do you find sense in the noise. It seems to me the difficulty is not a lack of information or information resources but a lack of time on the part of the public. What I mean by this, is that I'm retired and have the inclination and TIME to seek out alternative and often disagreeing sources of information.

An example would be the rating agencies; Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch. ONLY Standard and Poor's has downgraded the US Bond rating. So let's see now; each day we see the DOW, the NASDAQ, and so forth. But NOT the Moody's and the Fitch: the other two dominant rating agencies. And Standard and Poor's was the agency that was giving AIG, Fanni Mae and Fanny mac the AAA ratings, etc just before the current financial crisis.

So why the big deal about the downgrade. "If it bleeds; it leads" and it's really that simple. "Debt Crisis" is news, "Political theater" isn't. Stating facts like the USA is the second largest economy in the world (Eurogroup is the first, that's all of the common market combined) China is third. Our GDP is only slightly less than that of the EuroGroup, and almost twice that of China (source, CIA world fact book).

I know some really, really smart and educated people and I'm EMBARRASSED when I see the sources they use to inform themselves. They are so far above my feeble attempts to inform myself I'm ashamed. Non the less, my attempts exceed those of many others.

TV is the worst place to look for news and information, in my opinion. I use it as a bellwether to signal to me where my attention is trying to be directed so I can focus it elsewhere.

So getting back to the "noise" and "reason". The noise was the "debt crisis". The reason was a fundamental difference between political parties. And the difference in my view was the one that has existed since the founding of your country: the difference between "Federalism" (the Federal Government controls the majority of affairs of all sorts for the citizens of the Nation), and "States Rights" (the states control the majority of affairs of it's citizens).

This is a difficult division to explain simply, without some historical and sociological background. Some forms of federalism make sense: provide for the common defense, foreign affairs, national treaties, common currency,etc, they're mostly enumerated in the US Constitution (original document).

As a culture we have collectively agreed to increase (gradually and over many decades) the amount of federal involvement into our personal lives.

Certainly, along the way there has always been disagreement. But the end result is what we have today and where we are. Still the fundamental disagreement remains and was framed it in it's latest iteration as the "Budget Crisis".

Ultimately MONEY is the issue, regardless of what the argument is.

Let me offer an example. In my business career I was responsible for employee health and safety programs. This effort is NEVER seen as any more that an "expense" or "burden" line in a business budget. The facts are over my career I saved the companies I worked for millions of dollars in worker's compensation expenses. These expenses were the most valuable money a company had because they came off the bottom line.

But I always saved much more than my programs cost. At some point it was essential for me to find out how much was "a lot" in terms of worker's compensation expense. Usually the company president would come to me and ask if the $$ number he/she saw was correct. I'd say yes. He'd say, "Damn Jack THAT'S A LOT". I'd say, thanks Bob, that was the missing information I needed to know. "How much is 'a LOT' in this company.

So if a lifting device we needed cost $15,000 and could be amortized and expensed, by preventing future $100,000 back injuries that caused the "a lot" number, then $15,000 pales in significance. It usually amounted to "pay me now or pay me later".

When I made my budget, it was always "a lot" and I'd be asked to justify it. My response was always the same. "Look, it doesn't matter to me, personally, what number you want me to have. Just tell my, what in my budget DON'T YOU WANT. All of the programs, devices, services, etc, work together as a system are responsible for the savings you are enjoying. Just tell me what you DON'T WANT.

Federalism, a large central government, costs a lot of money. The only place a government has to get money is through taxes.

And my case was made this morning on Fareed Zakaria's GPS on CNN.

One of the noteworthy comments was that "American citizens" want both, low taxes and more government programs.

Well, that's fine, but the fact that this is an untenable position is obvious, isn't it?

So, now we're beginning to filter out some of the noise.

Can you agree that PERCEIVED needs tend to outweigh functional reality when it comes to paying for a social program? We justify the perceived need for the social program in terms of "right thing to do", "it just makes sense", "how can we in good conscience NOT do it, and so forth. A large number can agree on the rhetorical case FOR. Few will agree on how to pay for it or WHO will pay.

But the most important point to get from this post is that: to NOT be honest and say the debate is about Federalism v. States Rights is just deceitful.

Without some sort of specie (gold, silver, or whatever) on which to base the value of a currency any country, the US, can always just print it's way out of debt. We've done it before, more than once.

The case against "printing" our way out of debt is really (IMHO) just as simple as realizing that at some point that "backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government" is just a hollow phrase that gets more and more diluted.

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